Subject: Re: "G-g-global warm-m-ming!"
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Subject: Re: "G-g-global warm-m-ming!"
From: -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com>
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On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 5:37:47 PM UTC-5, Neil wrote:
> On 1/1/2018 11:14 AM, RichA wrote:
> > On Sunday, 31 December 2017 16:40:45 UTC-5, Neil  wrote:
> >> On 12/31/2017 4:30 PM, Savageduck wrote:
> >>> On Dec 31, 2017, RichA wrote
> >>>
> >>>> Toronto lakefront. Lake freezes all the way from the city
> >>>> to Centre Island.
> >>>> Predictions are Niagara Falls and all of Lake Erie may
> >>>> freeze over.
> >>>>
> >> It's typical for Lake Erie to freeze over as it's only
> >> about 60' at its deepest.
> >>   
> > 
> > 200ft.  60ft is the average.  It doesn't always freeze.
> > Also, a lot of it freezes, but I don't think it's ever
> > been 100% of the surface.  But I figure it must have 
> >because there have been cold spells in the past.
> 
> OK... Still, there are many years when ice breakers are
> used to cut a channel through the completely frozen lake.
> Also, that 210' depth is in the east end of the lake, 
> where the lake effect snowfall causes cities and towns to
> deal with 5' or more in a single day of snow. Get enough 
> days of that and the lake freezes over.


Here's a handy reference:

<https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#historical>

For all the lakes combined, the Annual Max Ice
coverage's average is 55%:

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/IceCoverAnnMax_1973_2017.jp...

And for Lake Erie specifically (Annual Max Ice Cover):

<https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/erie.pdf>

KISS summary from eyeballing the above chart, looks there's
been seven years since 1973 (inclusive) where Erie has hit 
100% coverage, which is 7/25 = 15% of the time.  Similarly, 
there's been 15 years (33%) where its been less than 90%, 
which means that 67% of the time it is 90% or higher.  


-hh